November 9, 2016 by gregrabidoux2013
So, that happened.
And really, no one saw it coming.
Sure some suspected, speculated and even surmised.
But besides perhaps some of the Trump team in the key battleground states down the stretch no one, especially those paid to know. Like pollster Frank Luntz who called a Clinton victory inevitable by 9pm est, did not have a clue.
Of course, today, the day after one of, if not, the most stunning US presidential elections ever, many in the media are scrambling and spinning mightily to show that well, they sorta suspected and even told us if we would only listen.
They didn’t know. It wasn’t just most if not all in the Hillary camp who were already measuring drapes at the White House and picking office space. The pundits at CNN, WSJ, the Washington Post and the NY Times, the Huffington Post, the SF Chronicle, the AP, Reuters, Gallup, MSNBC, and Clear Politics along with that politico sage at UVA, Larry Sabato, and anyone else you can name that got it wrong.
Boy, this Saturday Night Live ought to be a special skit with Kate McKinnon and Alec Baldwin to be sure.
Back in the real world, two major questions linger.
First, How did so many smart folks who should know better get it wrong?
Second, what do the results tell us?
Let’s take the first, well first. Statistically, all indications were that the popular vote would be close though tilt to Clinton which it actually did and with a few final votes still to be verified she will win the popular vote by a slim, slim margin. Mostly, due to California. Similar in 2000 for Al Gore who won the popular vote but got handled easily in terms of state electoral count. Though Hillary will end up with an even smaller popular vote margin than did Mr. Gore.
Fair enough. But how were the electoral map projection so far off?
For one, exit polls which always are a bit more art than science absolutely proved unreliable this election. In a nutshell, Clinton supporters stayed and talked and talked with pollsters, Trump supporters, perhaps fearful of the social stigma of being viewed as a Trump supporter, at least in part due to the incredibly tilted media coverage against him and for her, did not stay. Many of the exit polls then were scientifically faulty.
For another, the good folks at CNN and Wolf himself continuously dismissed the crowds, energy, passion and loyalty of those attending Trump rallies and elevated again and again the so-called Clinton machine and her awesome “get out the vote” ground game.
Talk about making the wrong call.
Another factor, in their haste and zeal to paint all Trump supporters as know-nothing bigots, racists and xenophobes, mostly or apparently so because they did not support another term of Obama policies under Hillary, the mainstream media completely missed the real under-current of Trump’s support.
What was it?
Jobs. Disaffected workers. Fed up Americans, not just white Americans, with seemingly being defeated in every sphere of life by foreign workers, Wall Street fat-cats, Big bank bail-outs and monied interest groups.
Hillary Clinton, especially in the wake of WikiLeaks represented the status-quo-telling voters what she thought they wanted to hear then cozying up to the money-interests behind closed doors.
One or two more, Clinton, really both, even Chelsea and her funneling funds for personal use at the Clinton Foundation, all came off untrustworthy. Hillary even conceded during the campaign that she “got” that many don’t trust her.
Change. While the GOP primary started with 17 capable and politically savvy men and one woman, it really was the true outsider, the Trump Tower billionaire who had never run for any political office in his life, that heard the voice and the anger of many and tapped into it quite frankly in a tone and a language they got. And responded to.
So, while the media embraced and amped up the narrative that it was a historical figure with a mandate to win on one side and a skirt-chasing, crude, groper on the other and seemed to glee and saturate coverage with National Enquirer type stories, they missed the real narrative.
Which was-Americans didn’t really care about the lurid lifestyle of Trump in the 1990s or 1980s or even more recently, nor did were they in a blind rush to elect Hillary as the first woman so she could break the “glass ceiling.”
Many prioritized, honestly what they always do come election time.
Jobs. The Economy. National Security. Terrorism. Fair Trade.
So much of the rest was just white noise and that fact didn’t really settle in and resonate with so many in the media until literally, the electoral count grew and grew in Trump’s favor until the result was indeed inevitable and it was her strained path to victory that was in doubt and not his.
What does it all mean?
Look, we tend to want to immediately label every election a “sea change” and a dramatic collapse of the parties and a “realignment” that will reverberate for years, even decades.
No one is fully certain. If they say they are they are either incredibly naïve, overly optimistic or flat out lying.
And there has already been enough of at least one of not tow of those factors.
Certainly, the GOP looks very different in terms of the locus of its power today than it did even 6 months ago, even yesterday morning. This is no longer the party of the Bushies or the “classic conservatives.” For heavens-sake, Mr. Trump is pro-choice, not overtly religious, twice divorced and not overtly anti-gay or same-sex marriage, he has even noted that legalization of marijuana makes good business sense. And he’s the GOP president-elect folks.
The Dems have much soul-searching to do as the Obama coalition of Blacks, Latinos, college-educated Whites and women did not flock to Hillary as they did to then candidate Obama in 2008. They will need to learn how to talk to white males now and to the future. They and not just the GOP establishment pols are seen as elite and out of touch.
Behold my friends, this is what Trump hath wrought.
But then you saw it coming did you not?
Somewhere, actually in an Embassy in Sweden, Mr. Assange is smiling.
Or pouring over newly hacked Trump emails. Maybe both.