Say Anything-OK Movie, Lousy Way To Campaign

30

August 5, 2016 by gregrabidoux2013

Say Anything Cusack

Ione Sky thought this was charming. Maybe not so now.

 

Friends, when the electoral dust settles this November it will not even be close.

Hillary will win in an absolute landslide. She will win all of the key swing states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan.

She will win about 380-430 Electoral College delegates with the “Magic” number being 275.

She will win with between 54-62% of the popular vote.

Kids, go ask your grandparents about Barry Goldwater versus LBJ.

Yep, it will be that bad and worse for the GOP.

Hillary Rodham Cinton, the little girl who either never envisioned herself as president and still can’t believe this is all happening to her OR the would-be feminist who has been plotting her path to the White House since she was about 6 (depends on who you believe) will be our next President.

isis hillary

Yes, yes a thousand emails yes!

 

As sure as Bill Clinton likes um, big balloons.

Say Anything bill clinton

I’ve always liked my balloons big. The bigger the better.

 

Unless.

Unless, Donald Trump the “Say Anything” that pops into your head candidate decides like now that he will accept that when you become the official nominee of your political party for president of the United States you commit yourself to do the following;

  1. Craft an effective political message
  2. Stay on message
  3. Know who the enemy is and is not
  4. Stay focused on the enemy and nothing else
  5. Stop making crazy stuff up

Since winning his party’s nomination which by the way was seen by many so-called experts as not even a remote possibility just a few months ago (remember-“A brokered convention, it will be chaos, chaos, I tell you!”) “The Donald” has;

  1. Continued to hold a grudge against Ted Cruz, thus alienating that bloc of voters
  2. Refused to endorse his party’s Speaker (Paul Ryan) or its most respected Senator and former presidential GOP nominee (John McCain) even though his own VP endorsed both strongly
  3. Got baited into picking  a fight with the Muslim-American parents of Captain Khan, a deceased and decorated war hero
  4. Insisted he saw a plane full of $400 million cash headed to Iran and had the tape to prove it when neither were true
  5. Called Hillary Clinton “the Devil” and the “real founder of ISIS.”
isis trump

I’m not even half-way through my list of enemies yet.

 

Whew.

So, it’s not that Mr. Trump has not been busy or energetic, two complaints he voiced about yet another of his GOP enemies (Mr. Romney) it’s just he’s been busy and energetic doing all the wrong things.

As a former candidate and my party’s nominee for US Congress (Democrat) and as a former aide to a Republican Congresswoman, Senator and consultant to a number of candidates of all stripes, there are certain truisms you just gotta follow if you have any shot at winning. No matter how much of a maverick or renegade or an “outsider” you may be, the American voting public expects that in a general election NOT a primary you will;

  1. Clearly make your case as to why you should be president
  2. Clearly make your case as to why the other guy or gal should not be president
  3. Not pick fights with civilians, especially parents of deceased war heroes
  4. Not make stuff up
  5. Not just play to your core voting bloc

The real key here is that a general election is a whole different ball-game than a party primary.

The next 90 or so days are all about winning over about 15-18% of the electorate that is genuinely undecided. The “Bernie Bros” will vote for Hillary massively with about 10% or so “opting-out” totally. Anyone who believes the “feel the bernies” will swing to Trump is Vermont dreaming.

say anything sanders supporters

We’ll move back in with Mom before we vote Trump.

 

But the true Libertarians will either vote for their standard-bearer Gary Johnson or Mr. Trump IF he gives them enough reason to do so.

Hillary still has some major flaws, especially in the trust department. A majority of Americans feel she broke the law and lied to cover it up. And continues to lie about it. Sweet.

But given the choice between someone who seems unhinged, unfocused and off-message versus someone who is untrustworthy, quite possibly a criminal but who stays on-message at all costs, and I mean all costs, the American public invariably will…

Go with the devil they know. Even if they aren’t sure they can trust him or her in this case.

Friends, the election will not even be close.

Unless, Mr. Trump immediately realizes that “Say Anything” (a 1989 rom-com with John Cusack and Ione Sky)  makes for an OK movie but a really lousy general election campaign strategy.

If he doesn’t, not even another WikiLeaks data dump of leaked Hillary emails will save him.

hillary president melania

So what I make stuff up?My lingerie closet is still bigger than your house.

 

And lest we forget…

donald trump anderson c

This whole campaign is icky. Where’s Kathy Griffin when you need her?

 

And now we end as we should…

bengal-tiger-why-matter_7341043

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30 thoughts on “Say Anything-OK Movie, Lousy Way To Campaign

  1. Cynthia H says:

    Love the post, couldn’t agree more, it’s like the guy doesn’t really want to be president!! Only pet-peeve is Say Anything was great!! John Cusack, what I crush I had back in the day.

    • Patricia H says:

      Interesting post, Greg. You make some excellent points. I think you are right that people would rather go with “the devil they know.”

  2. Philip Grey says:

    MEMO TO JULIAN ASSANGE AND WIKILEAKS (and the Russians, truth be told): You’re wasting your time with Hillary info dumps. Trump is such a bad national candidate, seemingly unable to learn or listen to anyone, and the national refusal to consider third party candidates is so ingrained, it doesn’t matter what you uncover about Hillary at this stage. If you had evidence she actually sold nuclear weapons to North Korea, it might cause a 5 point temporary loss in the polls, but that’s about it. The media gatekeepers might run the story as a sidebar in the Friday edition, but it would be gone by Monday morning.
    And you can forget holding back the best stuff to use as post-election blackmail for the same reason. She’s immune. Her reputation for corrupt behavior is such that it would barely register. As I discovered serving as a soldier in Iraq, when we were excoriated for things far less than what our enemy was doing in terms of crimes and atrocities, the media really only holds you to the standards you yourself profess. They didn’t hold the jihadists accountable for inhuman acts because the jihadists never signed on to any ridiculous notion of “humane” war. Same principle at work with Israel in their fight against the Palestinians, and it was also Bill Clinton’s ace in the hole against impeachment, and the reason why the only people who ended up resigning for infidelity were the Republicans who went after President Clinton.
    The Russians would love to have a President Trump because he’s stupid enough to believe Putin likes him, which belief they would gladly use to play him like a Stradivarius. Hillary, on the other hand, will take their money, but they won’t have a thing to hold over her head that won’t be like everything else she has already survived.

  3. Beth Y says:

    I had to google Say Anything—-totally forgot it! Trump has no chance whatsoever, say Hello to the First Man-BILLY C!!!

  4. Patricia H says:

    Interesting post, Greg. You make some excellent points. I think you are right that people would rather go with “the devil they know.”

  5. India Wilcox says:

    Great post. I could not agree more to your opinion. I think the U.S. is about to be in for a rude awakening. I just hope things go the way you speak about. I just have this gut wrenching feeling that the contrary will happen and we will all be no longer the “working poor class”, but poor Americans!

  6. Megan P. says:

    This post really tickled me.

    I think you make some really great points; points that give a more realistic look at what our country is facing and the looming decisions we must make come November (since we failed to do so prior to this).

    I think you hit the nail on the head with your post. I honestly have grown wary of being surprised at what Trump says or does, both in the public eye and amongst his peers in private. At this point, he’s built a mountain of support on his supporters’ prejudice and shared thought process (or lack thereof). If he hopes to have a fighting chance at the presidency, I agree that he’s going to need to alter his tune for the majority of people that are on the fence. While I sincerely hope that’s not the case, as I mentioned before, I’m no longer surprised at anything he does. That being said, it’ll be interesting to see how the next few months play out.

  7. Megan P. says:

    This post really tickled me.

    I think you make some really great points; points that give a more realistic look at what our country is facing and the looming decisions we must make come November (since we failed to do so prior to this).

    I think you hit the nail on the head with your post. I honestly have grown wary of being surprised at what Trump says or does, both in the public eye and amongst his peers in private. At this point, he’s built a mountain of support on his supporters’ prejudice and shared thought process (or lack thereof). If he hopes to have a fighting chance at the presidency, I agree that he’s going to need to alter his tune for the majority of people that are on the fence. While I sincerely hope that’s not the case, as I mentioned before, I’m no longer surprised at anything he does. That being said, it’ll be interesting to see how the next few months play out.

  8. Greg Gates says:

    I find both choices undesirable. Since I have personally lost interest in supporting either, I will place my trust in America’s future to the system of government wisely aimed at preventing abuses of executive power. Regardless of which candidate wins, I think we can continue to expect congressional deadlock and that the few policies that make it to be severely crippled by the opposition.

    • Greg-sounds pessimistic but that may indeed be the good news!

    • Ashley Crews says:

      I’m going to have to agree with Greg.
      Unfortunately, in my personal experience, the vast majority of the general population does not understand how the President is truly selected. I am very surprised at the number of people, educated people included, which will argue with others about politics and not have any knowledge about the Electoral College.
      Our society needs to focus less on the high cost advertising campaign that is the Presidential election and focus more on understanding the process as a whole. More importantly placing limitations on how many terms individuals may maintain certain positions.
      It should be our responsibility as parents, educators, and American’s to educate the younger generations on such important topics.

    • Harry Nelson says:

      Congressional deadlock makes me happy. Remind me why it’s a bad thing? It is the design of the system after all.

  9. April Brauda says:

    Firstly, I really enjoy how casual, sardonic and poignant your style is. Good read!. I do not have the data to dispute your estimation of HRC receiving as much as 90% of the “Bernie bro” vote but would like to share my views on the matter. I suspect massive amount of support (often first time voters) for Bernie may not be as loyal to the democratic party as we may expect. Truth be told I feel this general election will very likely be notable for it’s low voter turnout, for reasons you stated above. The youthful voters may just be numbers to be added to that all too large crowd of the disillusioned. Maybe this lower representation is due to the nature of the politics with higher energy candidates, as their momentum must decrease eventually. Or we could look to recently leaked emails revealing that impartiality was not maintained during the primaries. Either way I feel there is reason to suspect an incredibly low voter turnout for this election and that the “Bernie bros” may be less represented than previous expected, especially those whom do not reside in swing states.

    • Of the 6 major voter models that project both percentage and electoral votes (see Nate Silver, NY Times, Washington Post, Roper, Gallup, KTL) the average now (as of 8/18/2016) is Hillary with 375 and Trump with 163.

      • April Brauda says:

        I will never and have never disputed that Trump has no chance! Because he simply does not, likely not even a shift to the middle post primary could have saved him but certainly not now. I just expect the voter turnout to be astonishingly low. Thanks for the data though!

      • Harry Nelson says:

        It will be neat to return to this data Nov. 9. I wonder how a high roller like Trump would handle the over/under.

      • Harry Nelson says:

        I think this is incredibly interesting. Is there an explanation for the margin of error on these 6 models? It doesn’t appear that the models are doing their job.

  10. Harry Nelson says:

    My question is, what if we turned some of this around. What if we focused on a few unfaltering Hillary campaign moments and we said that Hillary was making stuff up? Would we expect the same result? Perhaps the election is media driven and whoever the media favorite is will win? Can we get some details?

    • Sure, that’s fair though Trump’s many faltering moments (hours?) make for much more compelling TV and of course, ratings. Something “The Donald” certainly can relate to and respect.

      • Harry Nelson says:

        I get the sense that Trump’s campaign is pure gimmickry and that we really don’t how it will shake out. Have we ever seen anything like this? Seems he’s broken too many rules to even get this far. He is a big business boy after all. Pondering…

  11. Kyle Rudrow says:

    I’ve talked with several economics and PA/political science professors who all agree that it will be a landslide in favor of Clinton. We just need to look at demographics and voting patterns to make that determination. Another fascinating thing to look at is the betting markets. Anybody’s conservative uncle can make claims about the potential outcome of an election, but the question is whether they are willing to put their money where their mouth is on the issue. Most markets have Clinton having a 60-70 percent chance of winning in November, even though the current opinion polls provide much more modest figures. Though Clinton is an incredibly flawed candidate, and not particularly good at campaigning, Trump is seemingly trying to sabotage his own campaign with childish outbursts and poor planning. In any election, a campaign team should be trying to bring in more supporters after a primary and shift toward a unity message and general election strategy. Instead, Trump is stuck in primary-mode, continuously lashing out potential allies.
    Even as a liberal Democrat I have several conservative and Republican friends. From my experience, nobody gets more red-faced with anger when talking about Trump than Ted Cruz supporters. In the primary, both candidates went after a very similar demographic of voters. Ultimately Cruz lost, and any normal candidate would make amends with their former adversaries, lock up support of the party, and go into the general election unified with a clear message. Instead, Trump says nobody will support veterans and the military better than he will while bashing a Gold Star Family and POWs. He tells a convention for a party in favor of limited government that only he can fix the country’s problems. His followers and campaign boo and disavows a former rival, who has enough respect to show up to the convention, for simply saying “vote your conscience.”
    Indeed, not only will Trump fail to expand his party’s base, but he will alienate large segments of the population who would otherwise consider casting a vote for him. The Trump campaign’s notoriously poor strategic planning will perhaps be the only legacy his campaign has after 2016.

  12. Kendria Swift says:

    We have freedom of speech, but it is evidently clear that we cannot simply “Say Anything.” There is a difference between being undecided and not wanting to decide. This is where I stand for the upcoming election. I am hoping that when all is said and done, there will be a quiet, retreat from the limelight. In general, I cannot confirm that I am “sold” through either of the candidate options. It is simply a rough election year. I would like to see real issues being addressed rather than used as a political leg to stand on. No one president will ever be able to correct all the issues that arose in previous administrations, but it goes without saying that we should acknowledge the positive strides in the right direction when they occur.

  13. Connor Stanton says:

    This is exactly what I have been talking about with anyone that brings up the issues of the election. It is almost like everyone is so distracted that hardly anyone realizes that Trump is almost competing with himself to see how crazy he can sound.

    I feel that Trump is actually just running for office as a joke and will come out to the public later to show how idiotic the nation is for allowing him to say things that he has said and act the way he has acted and still give him support. This is a real life “The Kid Who Ran for President”

    • Junior Jackson says:

      People are dissatisfied with the political system that they have inherited. I respect everyone decisions to vote for anyone they choose however our system has become very blurred and secretive and people wants someone they can read completely. Trump, however, isn’t that person, he lies and he has failed many ordinary people time and time again. So I encourage everyone to make their vote count but voting right in, Trumps favor, won’t be good for anyone involved.

  14. valdostaphil says:

    Phil-Edwards-7050-Fall-2016-Blog-Post

    I agree with this assessment. The election is not even going to be close, and the last month since this post have born that out. Hilary is leading in all swing states. The left starts with a huge electoral lead from the get go on top of that. The Donald can’t make up the difference. It is my sincerest hope that this election leads to third parties making significant inroads and fracturing the status quo by picking up 5-10% of the seats in the HOR in the midterms under a banner other than D or R and then caucusing independently.

  15. Dustin H. says:

    Great post Dr. R. At the time you wrote this, I would have agreed it would be a blow out, however as races tend to do, it has tightened in the closing months. This has occurred despite Trump’s continual, outlandish comments and behavior. I still believe Clinton will win by a good amount, but not the landslide you (and I) were predicting a few months ago. I guess we will find out here in about 36 hours!

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