June 15, 2016 by gregrabidoux2013
There were 17. And then there was but One. The Donald.
But that was only on the GOP side of the equation.
And really, that’s the problem for Donald Trump, the (still) presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, the so-called “elite” GOP leaders who continue to condemn Trump (think Lindsey Graham, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and even Bernie “Feel the Bern” Sanders.
Hint: The race is now moving into the endgame phase.
Securing the GOP nomination, being an anti-establishment, firebrand billionaire, the Donald “who won’t take guff from no one” Trump still has a ways, a long ways, to go to until he can let Melania “I have many ideas” Trump re-design and re-brand the White House under the Trump name.
For all the talk, and man, there was a ton of media talk, about a contested or brokered convention and how this would all but doom the GOP chances in the general election the fact is that is not happening and probably never was gonna happen.
But that is the least of the GOP problems right now. Simply put, their guy is the problem. He sewed up his party’s nomination even before Hillary did (who saw that coming, be honest) and suddenly it looked like there could be a real contested (in an electoral sort of way) general election.
But since Ted “Lyin’ Cruz and John “he never wins” Kasich both went down the Indiana primary drain it’s as if the bully (that’d be Trump) has no one to push around. No one to really pick on. And it shows.
He has run his post-Indiana primary victory euphoria right smack dab into the ground. It’s so bad right now that at a time when his party should be rallying around him and targeting the enemy (Hillary, gasp, a Clinton for crying out loud) they are joining Hillary’s criticism against Trump.
Criticism against what you may ask?
Let’s see. GOP leaders are piling on Trump for his racist comments against a New Mexico judge, his calling (again) for a ban on all Muslims entering the country, his self-congratulatory comments in the wake of the Orlando massacre and for his implying that President Obama is at least partially to blame for the Orlando killings.
Not since Barry “In your heart you know he’s right” Goldwater has the GOP been working this hard to utterly distance themselves and flee from the candidate, their candidate, who will supposedly be carrying the GOP torch this November.
Trump has promised to “open up the vault” against Hillary but so far the electoral needle has simply not moved much. Bernie and the Berners seemingly are making nice with Hillary as Obama plays party mediator and now Hillary-endorser and Trump just sort of flails away at the air.
The latest Gallup poll shows Hillary with a 12 point lead as of June 15th.
Is this historically bad for Trump?
Not necessarily. But it sure ain’t good.
In June of 1964, Democrat Lyndon Johnson was polling at an astounding 77% to 18% over his GOP rival Barry Goldwater and went on to win in the general election 61-38%.
But the bad news for the Trumpster is that the candidate who has lead by at least double-digits in June has gone on to win the general election nearly every time.
The infamously flawed polling of 1948 which had Thomas Dewey (R) ahead of Harry Truman 49-38% and then he wound up losing to Truman by a close 49% to 45%.
More bad news?
The more modern exception was when Bill Clinton (yep, those same Clintons) was polling 10 points behind George H. W. Bush in June of 1992 (22-32%) and came back to win on election day by a margin of 43-37%.
So, is it over? Should we just move on to the swearing-in of Hillary “I can’t believe it’s really happening” Clinton and be done with it?
Well, maybe not quite that fast.
Hillary does come with almost (more?) baggage than her opponent and there are those pesky, lingering, quite possibly illegal e-mails swirling about her well-coifed head.
But with the Democrats now looking very un-democratic-party in their apparent new-found unity and sense of purpose and the GOP looking more and more like the frenetic, unfocused days of 1964 and Goldwater, Donald “in his heart you aren’t sure he’s right” Trump may well be facing one of the most lopsided presidential defeats in modern history, since, well, 1964.
He was more entertaining when he had about 16 other wanna-be presidents to pick on wasn’t he?
Usually, around late August to early September Americans take a more somber and serious look at who they want to lead this country.
And while Hillary doesn’t excite like Bernie (at least to those impressionable millennials!) nor captivate crowds like hubby Bill did, nor make us feel proud like Ronnie did, she is, what’s the word I am looking for…oh, yes, safe.
As in a safe choice. Certainly safer than the often unhinged Donald Trump.
He is polling historically low in how unfavorable women, African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans and the LGBTQ community feel about him and his presidential aspirations.
Perhaps the most damning number is the 55% of those randomly polled of adults most likely to vote (regardless of party) say they could NEVER see themselves voting for Mr. Trump.
Do you see how the pie of potential votes he needs to slide into the Oval Office is shrinking rapidly?
So, could he turn a June double-digit deficit into a tight victory come November?
Possibly. But the numbers say No.
And come November there is a really good chance so will the electorate.
…Do you, Hillary Rodham Clinton solemnly swear…”Yes, yes, get on with it…I’ve been practicing my Inaugural Address longer than Bill’s been chasing skirts, I mean votes…unless of course that statement polls unfavorably in which case I can change. That’s one thing you can always count on.”
Somewhere Barry Goldwater is smiling. He may not hold the record for largest deficit loss much longer.
On a more positive note, How ’bout those Cubbies?